Well, South Carolina definitely did not go the way I was expecting (and hoping). Newt’s surge continued well into the Saturday voting and looked to completely alter the dynamic in Florida. What had been a basic coronation of Romney following his New Hampshire victory appeared to unravel quickly as Santorum was name the winner (albiet, slim victor) of the Iowa caucuses and Gingrich propelled his way to a decisive 12 point victory in South Carolina.
However, then some miraculous events happened: Newt did poorly at the two Florida debates, Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush defended Romney against ridiculous claims by Newt, and Romney found his mojo (as well as powerful negative attacks). Romney’s slip in the polls have since turned into strong front-runner positions, yet again. While I was taking a leap of faith in predicting a Romney win last week prior to the South Carolina primary, I am standing on much firmer ground today.
Florida is important to two reasons: 1) its a massive state with 5 distinct microcosms and 2) it is an important swing state. Winning Florida not only will give the victor 50 winner-takes-all delegates, but also serious momentum going into the AZ and MI primaries and caucuses in Maine, Colorado, Nevada, and Minnesota. A Romney win will help to secure these next pro-Romney states in his column making a comeback for Gingrich very difficult. But more to come on a post-Florida strategy after tomorrow’s vote.
Now off to my prediction (which followed a similar calculation to ones in the past with two slight alterations):
Weighted Average Poll: I pinned too much hope on old polls for my South Carolina prediction. I realized then that the more current polls, while not a perfect reflection on how voters will react on election day, are a much better indicator. As such, I decided to weight the more recent polls heavier than the older polls. I looked at polls that came after SC, giving the 3 first polls a weight of 0.1 (Quinnipiac 1/19-1/23, Rasmussen 1/22, Insider Advantage 1/22). The next polls received a weight of 0.2 (PPP 1/22-1/23, FL Chamber of Commerce 1/22-1/23, CNN 1/22-1/24, Monmouth University 1/24-1/25, Insider Advantage 1/25, Rasmussen 1/25). Finally, the latest polls received a weighting of 0.7 as these reflect the most current opinions of voters (Quinnipiac 1/24-1/26, Sunshine State News 1/24-1/26, Miami Herald/Mason Dixon 1/24-1/26, NBC/Marist 1/25-1/26, PPP 1/28 & 1/28-1/29, Rasmussen 1/28, Suffolk University 1/28-1/29, Insider Advantage 1/29). I tried to break the polls into pre-Debate #1, post-Debate #1, and post-Debate #2.
Trending: Using the same technique, I took the last poll and subtracted the first poll, halved the results and added that to the Weighted Average. This worked to catch any of the momentum the candidates has that isn’t reflected in the polling data.
Turnout Expectations (Absentee Ballots): Florida is the first state with absentee ballots playing a huge role. Voters could start mailing in their ballots as early as last Saturday, ending this past Saturday. As a result, we have to build into the prediction those who have already voted. According to polling data, absentee voters are breaking heavily toward Romney (which is not surprising since the older Cuban-American population tends to vote via absentee and they are a pro-Romney group). As a result, I’m giving Romney a +2 bump and Gingrich and Paul a -1 decrease. Paul because he has basically abandoned the state to focus on the next caucus states and Gingrich because he seriously lacks a ground game.
Undecided Voters: The remaining 8 points of undecided voters have to be distributed among the candidates. Romney is definitely the front-runner and the surging candidate. He is increasingly viewed by Florida voters as the best to take on Obama, as a result, I’m bumping him +4. Gingrich has successfully casted himself as the anti-Romney, so I’m increasing him my +2. Santorum and Paul each get a bump of +1 since Santorum had a great debate performance on Thursday and has played hard with the religious voters. Paul will definitely get a bump from his fanatic followers.
Florida Primary Prediction: It is hard to estimate the true percentage, but the prediction aims to examine how the candidates will rank and then the relative spread between them.
- Mitt Romney: 45%
- Newt Gingrich: 31%
- Santorum: 12%
- Paul: 12%
Romney will finish strong easily breaking the 40% threshold and topping Newt Gingrich by double digits. The fight for 3rd place will be more of a challenge. I think Santorum will slightly edge out Paul since Santorum has made an effort to win votes in the state.
After the results come in tomorrow evening, I’ll reassess each candidates’ prospects for the GOP nomination and discuss where the race post-Florida could head. Will this be a brokered convention like Gingrich keeps saying it will be? I’ll explore this after Florida.
| Weighted Average | Trending/Momentum | |
| Mitt Romney | 39 | 0 |
| Newt Gingrich | 31 | -3 |
| Ron Paul | 10 | 2 |
| Rick Santorum | 13 | -1 |
| Turnout Expectations (Absentee) | Undecided Error | |
| Mitt Romney | 2 | 4 |
| Newt Gingrich | -1 | 2 |
| Ron Paul | 0 | 1 |
| Rick Santorum | -1 | 1 |
| South Carolina Prediction | ||
| Mitt Romney | 45 | |
| Newt Gingrich | 31 | |
| Ron Paul | 12 | |
| Rick Santorum | 12 |
